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NOTE TO READERS:  Hillary Clinton is feeling serious legal heat.  It raises the issue of whether she will eventually need a pardon.  A friend of Urgent Agenda asks the following question:  "Do you have any readers who are currently licensed as attorneys in their own state who would be willing to give your readers a very short unsigned summary of the rules and laws and regulations concerning pardons? Must there be an arrest, an indictment, a filing of charges?"

If readers have answers, please send them to comments@urgentagenda.com and I'll publish the ones that seem to fill the bill.

JANUARY 31,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:31 P.M. ET:

FULL EQUALITY – From Yahoo:   The skies weren’t so friendly on a recent Delta Air Lines flight. After two female flight attendants got into a fist fight on flight 2598 traveling from Los Angeles to Minneapolis, the captain decided to make an unscheduled landing in Salt Lake City.  According to the Aviation Herald, the flight attendants had a disagreement over work issues on the Jan. 22 flight. A third woman on the plane tried to break up the fight and was also hit by the brawling flight attendants. At that point, the captain made the decision to land the Boeing 757. The plane was flying just south of Salt Lake City when the fight broke out.
We are approaching full gender equality.  The women are just as adolescent and violent as the men.

HELLO YOUNG LOVERS – From the College Fix:   The old adage “a kiss is just a kiss” may not stand up to scrutiny anymore.  On Thursday, the University of Southern California’s student government hosted a “Consent Carnival” that aimed to teach students how to properly hook-up under the “yes means yes” state law that requires so-called affirmative consent throughout any sexual encounter.  With that, a “Kissing Booth” at the event offered Hershey Kisses glued to little sheets of white paper that essentially explained how to properly kiss without committing sexual assault. The five-step checklist states on the front “what exactly does it mean to … ‘consent’ to a kiss?” and on the back states that “consent is”: For the answer, go here.  It's the rest of the piece, and a remarkable example of the infantilization of college students.

FREE AT LAST – From BBC:  A huge vulture detained in Lebanon on suspicion of spying for Israel has been returned home after UN peacekeepers intervened, Israeli officials said.  The bird, which has a 1.9m (6ft 5in) wing span, flew over the border from an Israeli game reserve and was caught by Lebanese villagers on Tuesday.  They became suspicious as the griffon vulture had a tracking device attached to its tail.
It is part of a conservation project to reintroduce raptors to the Middle East.  Wildlife officials say the vulture was brought from Spain last year and set free about a month ago in the Gamla Nature Reserve in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.  Tel Aviv University is involved in tracking the bird, and as well as a GPS transmitter, it had tags on its wings and an engraved metal ring on its leg saying: "Tel Aviv Univ Israel".
The UN finally did something useful.  It should stick to getting vultures out of trouble.

January 31,  2016     Permalink

ISIS PERSECUTES CHRISTIANS, AND THE OBAMANS SHRUG – AT 12:51 P.M. ET:  This country's response to the persecution of Christians by ISIS is obscene, but the mainstream media doesn't seem to care much.  From Gatestone Institute:

When a 1,400-year-old Iraqi Christian monastery was destroyed by the Islamic State (ISIS) most of the world condemned the demolition -- except for spokesman for the U.S. military's Operation Inherent Resolve, Col. Steve Warren.

"Thousands [of Iraqi Christians] have been killed, hundreds of thousands have been forced to flee," said CNN's Wolf Blitzer in an interview with Col. Warren the other week. "There is legitimate fear -- you're there in Baghdad -- that the long history of Christians living peacefully, productively in Iraq, is coming to an end. How worried should we be about the Christian community in Iraq?"

Col. Warren's response: "Wolf, ISIL doesn't care if you're a Christian ... We've seen no specific evidence of a specific targeting towards Christians."

Except that roughly two-thirds of Iraq's 1.5 million Christian citizens have been killed or forced to flee the country by ISIS and its jihadi predecessors over the past decade. This has nothing to do with their religious identity?

COMMENT:  I wish Christian groups would have their own million-man march to Washington to expose the horror in the Mideast.  I cannot understand the lack of urgency.

Read the whole story.  It's important.

January 31,  2016     Permalink

AND NOW FOR THE NEGATIVES – AT 11:37 A.M. ET:  Elections are won (and lost) as much by the dislike that voters have for candidates as for the like.  Gallup is out with a poll of all Americans on the "yuch" factor.  From The Hill: 

Republican front-runner Donald Trump has the highest unfavorable ratings of any presidential candidate in either party in the 2016 field, a Gallup poll released Saturday found.

Sixty percent of those surveyed gave the business mogul unfavorable ratings, while a third said they viewed him favorably, for a net favorability rating of -27.

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush are tied for second-lowest net favorability ratings with -10 each.

Among other Republican candidates, Bush's 45 percent unfavorable rating is the next-worst after Trump.

Following him are Chris Christie at 38 percent, Ted Cruz at 37 percent, Marco Rubio at 33 percent and Ben Carson at 30 percent.

Clinton's unfavorable rating is 52 percent. Democratic presidential rival Bernie Sanders' is 31 percent.

The numbers pose a striking contrast to the fact that Trump dominates the Republican field in polls nationally and in most early-voting states.

COMMENT:  I'd look at those unfavorables very carefully.  Trump is leading the GOP race only because his opposition is divided among a phone book full of candidates.  He is unloved by the electorate at large.

Hillary's 52% yuch rating comes after 25 years on the national stage.  If she wins she wins by default, against a weak Republican candidate.  But that 52% indicates the enormous advantage the GOP has if it nominates someone the public can actually like.

January 31, 2016       Permalink 

IOWA TOMORROW – AT 10:48 A.M. ET:  The Iowa caucuses are tomorrow, not Tuesday, the traditional election day.  The candidates are making their last appeals.

Iowa is important.  It will remain important for about two days, then you won't hear the name again.  Same with New Hampshire a week from Tuesday.  Get the fame while you can.  From Fox: 

The 2016 presidential contenders are begging their Iowa supporters to get to the caucuses Monday and Donald Trump, true to form, is in-your-face about it.

"You're from Iowa," Trump told a Dubuque crowd Saturday. "Are you afraid of snow?"

A snowfall forecast to start Monday night appeared more likely to hinder the hopefuls in their rush out of Iowa than the voters who will be flocking to the caucuses in the first contest of the presidential campaign.

Still, there was every reason for candidates to be urgent about turnout in tight races on both sides.

Democrat Bernie Sanders called it a tossup with Hillary Clinton and said every caucus-goer counts.

Republican Ted Cruz directed much of his final advertising against Marco Rubio as the senators' feud grows even more bitter in the final days.

Texan Cruz, considered Trump's chief rival in Iowa, took to the airwaves to challenge the conservative credentials of Rubio, the Floridian who's running third in Iowa, according to the polls.

One ad said of Rubio: "Tax hikes. Amnesty. The Republican Obama."

"The desperation kicks in," Rubio said in response. "From my experience, when people start attacking you it's because you're doing something right."

Iowa offers only a small contingent of the delegates who will determine the nominees, but the game of expectations counts for far more than the electoral math in the state. Campaigns worked aggressively to set those expectations in their favor (meaning, lower them) for Iowa, next-up New Hampshire and beyond.

COMMENT:  So now we wait for the caucuses, and the even longer pundit analyses to follow.  By the time the analytics are finished, the candidates will be in New Hampshire, not recalling where Des Moines is.

January 31,  2016     Permalink

JANUARY 30,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:44 P.M. ET:

LAST IOWA GOP POLL – The last Des Moines register poll of this political season has just been published.  From Bloomberg:   Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa's caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday evening's turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.  The findings before the first ballots are cast in the 2016 presidential nomination race shows Trump with the support of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by 23 percent for the Texas senator and 15 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.  The billionaire real estate mogul leads Cruz among those who say they definitely plan to attend, 30 percent to 26 percent. With the less committed—those who say they'll probably attend—Trump also beats Cruz, 27 percent to 21 percent.  If I were Trump, I wouldn't be thrilled.   He's got only 28 percent.  That means 72 percent are not for him.  Add Cruz and Rubio's total, and you get 38 percent, far more than Trump's vote.  We have said all along that one of the things distorting this race is the number of GOP candidates who aren't Donald Trump.

LAST IOWA DEM POLL – From Bloomberg:  Hillary Clinton is holding onto a slim lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa as Democrats prepare for Monday’s caucuses, though an outpouring of young voters and those who say the system is rigged could enable Sanders to pull off an upset, according to a new poll.
Clinton leads Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, in a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers released Saturday ahead of the nation's first nominating contest. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley has 3 percent in the survey conducted Jan. 26-29.  Same old story.  Those "young" voters, many of whom have the minds of children, think Bernie is just so neat.  Bernie is a socialist who'll destroy even more than Obama destroyed.  Incredible:  The Democratic Party is deciding between a socialist who honeymooned in the Soviet Union, and Hillary Clinton, who's under an intense FBI investigation for mishandling the nation's highest secrets.  What a choice.

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – I must rush to Kentucky to take this course.  From eater.com:   Students at the University of Kentucky now have the distinct privilege of being able to get college credit for eating tacos. According to Munchies, the university is offering an undergraduate class called "Taco Literacy: Public Advocacy and Mexican Food in the US South," and the professor behind it wants to use tacos as an avenue for students to learn more about how people can forge social connections through food.  "This class allows our students to explore the issues of immigration, inequality, workers, intercultural communication, and literacy through the prism of food," Steven Alvarez, an assistant professor from the school's writing, rhetoric, and digital studies department told Munchies.  Through coursework that involves writing restaurant reviews, sampling tacos, and collecting data, students are meant to explore their community and develop skills to analyze "transnational community food literacies and how these connect the stories of people and food across borders," Alvarez said.

January 30, 2016        Permalink

A RUBIO BOOMLET? – AT 12:08 P.M. ET:  I'll believe it when and if it shows up in voting numbers.  But Rubio clearly is being pushed by members of the Republican establishment, and some in the conservative media, because they believe he's the most electable Republican candidate.  From The Hill: 

Buzz is growing on the ground in Iowa around Marco Rubio, who many political watchers believe is set for a stronger-than-expected showing at Monday’s caucuses.

In interviews with The Hill, Iowa Republicans and independent analysts in the state say Rubio is primed to break free from the second tier of contenders and finally emerge as the candidate to save the establishment from Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, who are battling for the lead in Iowa.

“He easily has the greatest upside,” said Doug Gross, who served as Iowa finance chairman for the campaigns of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney.

“Mainstream Republicans are not comfortable with Trump or Cruz, and the more I hear from them, the more they say they’ve decided on Rubio. He has the greatest potential and it’s driven by pragmatism, a desire to win, and angst with the two front-runners.”

To be sure, that assumes more strength for Rubio than is currently reflected in the polls.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, the race for Iowa is a two-man contest with Trump the front-runner at 31 percent, and Cruz hanging on at 25 percent. Rubio is a distant third place at 14 percent.

However, Iowa is known for producing late-surging candidates.

In 2012, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) was polling in sixth place one week before the caucuses and subsequently shocked political observers by coming out of nowhere to win.

According to a Monmouth University survey released this week, not even half of all likely caucus-goers have finally settled on their candidate, leaving plenty of room for voters to swing behind an upstart.

The sense in Iowa is that in 2016, Rubio is likeliest to outperform in a way that has a meaningful impact on the race.

COMMENT:  We've always liked Rubio here.  There's no point in even speculating about his future, as voting is only three days away.  Iowa will not necessarily name the winner of the Republican presidential nomination, but it can give some momentum to a candidate who produces a surprise and is seen as electable as president.

January 30, 2016       Permalink

ARE THEY SERIOUS? – AT 11:53 A.M. ET:   The European Union is becoming increasingly bizarre, and distant from the cultures of its member nations.  This is what world government is all about.  From London's Daily Mail:

There is 'no link' between the migrant crisis and the wave of sex attacks in Cologne during New Year celebrations, EU officials believe.

The European Commission wants to remove 'false associations' between the increasing number of some criminal acts and the arrival of migrants, documents show.

Internal minutes taken at a cabinet meeting on January 13 suggest officials are also growing concerned about the possibility of a public backlash in relation to the attacks.

They document the first vice president of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, stating that the two events are 'not related', according to Matthew Holehouse for The Telegraph.

Minutes state: 'As far as the crimes in Cologne were concerned, he [Timmermans] said that these were a matter of public order and were not related to the refugee crisis.'

COMMENT:  Like the Nazi officials of a previous era, they see nothing.  They see absolutely nothing.  Western Europe is dying a slow, painful death.  Many of its countries, even without mass immigration from hostile societies, can't even reproduce their own populations. 

Europe is living the life of the lie.  It reminds us of the 1930s.  History doesn't repeat itself.  The psychology of history repeats itself.  And the psychology of denial is at work.  That denial will become greater when the Iran nuclear deal produces trade for the Europeans. 

But imagine Europe 25 years from now.  Better yet, don't imagine it.  Have a pleasant day.

January 30, 2016       Permalink

NEW YORK TIMES ENDORSES – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:  I have no idea why, but the endorsement of The New York Times for political office still has meaning among some people.  I know all three of them.

So today the mighty Times, where I used to labor in better days, endorses Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.  You can read the endorsement here.  It's so exciting. 

The Times portrays Clinton as one of the most qualified candidates in the history of the Universe, almost on the level of George Washington.  Of course, there is no listing of actual accomplishments, for obvious reasons.  Two paragraphs stand out:

As secretary of state, Mrs. Clinton worked tirelessly, and with important successes, for the nation’s benefit. She was the secretary President Obama needed and wanted: someone who knew leaders around the world, who brought star power as well as expertise to the table. The combination of a new president who talked about inclusiveness and a chief diplomat who had been his rival but shared his vision allowed the United States to repair relations around the world that had been completely trashed by the previous administration.

That is complete garbage.  Our relations are in the tank.  The reset with Russia is a farce.  Mideast nations don't trust us.  China is more aggressive than ever.  Maybe we're a hit in Cuba.

And the other paragraph:

Mrs. Clinton has honed a steeliness that will serve her well in negotiating with a difficult Congress on critically important issues like climate change. It will also help her weather what are certain to be more attacks from Republicans and, should she win the White House, the possibility of the same ideological opposition and personal animus that President Obama has endured. Some of the campaign attacks are outrageous, like Donald Trump’s efforts to bring up Bill Clinton’s marital infidelity. Some, like those about Mrs. Clinton's use of a private email server, are legitimate and deserve forthright answers.

Say what?  It's like saying, "Aside from murdering your wife, sir, do you have any issues that might offend the public?" 

In fact, Hillary Clinton is under an intense FBI investigation.  It involves deeply serious matters of national security.  If indicted and convicted, she could go to prison, although I'd imagine they'd work out a plea deal.

But she is not the Superwoman portrayed by The Times, which increasingly operates in its own world.  And I don't think the paper's endorsement will change votes in Iowa.

January 30,  2016     Permalink